DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/03 10:53

   Corn, Soybean Futures Lower at Midday; Wheat Flat-Higher

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
16 to 18 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
16 to 18 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is sharply lower with the S&P off 60. The U.S. Dollar Index is 25 points 
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude .60 
higher and natural gas .08 higher. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals 
are weaker with gold 4.00 lower.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with flat spread action as 
trade struggles to extend buying at the upper end of the recent range. Harvest 
is moving forward and outside market pressure continues. Ethanol margins will 
likely stay sideways in the short term with unleaded working to find a 
supportive level for blending as winter blends get phased in. Basis should 
continue to see short-term pressure as combines roll. USDA's weekly Crop 
Progress report showed maturity at 82% versus 75% on average; 23% harvested 
versus 21% on average; conditions unchanged at 53% good to excellent and 18% 
poor to very poor. On the December chart the 20-day moving average at $4.81 1/4 
is support again with the rebound Monday, with the Upper Bollinger Band at 
$4.90 3/4 as further resistance.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 16 to 18 cents lower at midday with trade scoring fresh 
lows as meal continues to drag the product complex lower to keep selling in 
play. Harvest is still pushing ahead and negative spillover from outside 
markets continues. Meal is 5.50 to 6.50 lower and oil is 40 to 50 points lower. 
The daily export wire showed 265,000 metric tons (mt) of soybeans sold to 
China. Basis will fade with harvest picking up again with the river system 
still declining in flows. Weekly crop progress showed 86% dropping leaves 
versus 77% on average; 23% harvested versus 22% on average; conditions 2% 
better to 52% good to excellent and poor to very poor at 17%. November chart 
support is the fresh low at $12.56 3/4, with resistance the 20-day moving 
average at $13.21.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are flat to a nickel higher at midday with Chicago leading 
action again with firmer spread trade this morning as trade tries to 
consolidate the rebound back from the lows despite the outside market pressure. 
Matif wheat is firmer at midday with the dollar pressing to fresh highs. Plains 
planting progress should move forward with warm and somewhat wet conditions for 
some of the Plains with 40% planted versus 43% on average and 15% emerged 
versus 16% on average. Australia continues to struggle. Little change in the 
Black Sea situation is seen with bushels still moving out and planting just 
underway as well. The daily export wire saw some action with China booking 
220,000 mt of old crop SRW. On the KC December chart, the lower Bollinger Band 
at $6.73 is resistance, which we remain just above at midday, with the fresh 
low at $6.62 below that, and the 20-day moving average well above the market at 
$7.17.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala




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