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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/18 10:52

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
11 to 14 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
11 to 14 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is mixed at midday with the S&P 2 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 3 lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade has crude 1.10 
higher and natural gas .08 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious 
metals are mixed with gold up 4.00.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with spread action firmer as 
trade consolidates after the recent slide with few surprises on the weekly crop 
progress report with action just below nearby resistance. Ethanol margins 
should remain rangebound in the short term with the firmer unleaded action 
recently boosting blenders. Warmer weather continues to be seen in the 
short-term forecast with the north and west to see significant moisture with 
the east staying warmer and drier for now with more focus on the second week of 
the forecast. Basis action should stay steady in the short term. Weekly crop 
progress showed emergence at 93% versus 92% on average, with 72% good to 
excellent, down 2 percentage points, and 5% poor to very poor. On the July 
chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.52 is resistance again after we failed 
to hold Friday, with the Lower Bollinger Band as further support at $4.37, 
which we bounced from last week.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 11 to 14 cents higher at midday with firm spread action 
and broad product strength helping us rebound off the fresh lows scored Monday. 
Meal is 4.50 to 5.50 higher and oil is 60 to 70 points higher. NOPA crush came 
in above expectations for May, scoring a new record with tighter oil stocks. 
Planting should wind down with the heaviest rains in the areas that are mostly 
complete. Weekly crop progress showed 93% planted versus 91% on average; 82% 
emerged versus 79% on average; with 70% good to excellent, down two percentage 
points, and 5% poor to very poor. South America should continue to lead the 
export market. Basis should remain mostly steady in the short term. The July 
chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at $11.98 with support at the 
lower Bollinger Band at 11.44.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower with Chicago action the downside leader 
as harvest pushes forward on the Plains and begins to expand in the Black Sea 
area as we edge toward heavily oversold conditions. Plains harvest should 
continue to move ahead with harvest at 27% complete versus 14% on average, 
which is the fastest pace since 2012. Wheat rated good to excellent was up 2 
percentage points to 49%, with 17% poor to very poor. Spring wheat is 4% headed 
versus 7% on average with 76% good to excellent, up 3 percentage points, and 4% 
poor to very poor. The dollar is holding at the top of the range with MATIF 
action at fresh lows for the move and getting oversold as well. On the KC July 
chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $6.76, with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $5.99, which we are just above at midday.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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