DTN Midday Livestock Comments          01/10 11:52

   Feeder Cattle Trade Mixed Upon Seeing Corn Prices Rally 

   Bids of $200 have been renewed in the South but no new trade has been noted. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the live 
cattle contracts feel supported by stronger boxed beef prices and the week's 
higher trend in the cash market. The feeder cattle complex is mixed as corn 
prices trade higher, and last but not least, the lean hog market is continuing 
to push higher as it's thankful for the uptick in pork demand late this week. 
March corn is up 11 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.20. The 
Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 658.48 points.

   Friday's export report shared that beef sales of 5,600 mt for 2025 were 
primarily to Mexico (2,400 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Japan (900 mt). Pork 
net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (20,600 mt), Japan 
(3,000 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   It's been another prosperous day for the live cattle complex as the 
contracts are continuing to rally thanks to the tremendous demand in which the 
week has seen from both boxed beef prices and the fed cash cattle market. 
February live cattle are up $0.72 at $198.32, April live cattle are up $0.62 at 
$198.87 and June live cattle are up $0.45 at $193.20. A few new bids have been 
noted in the South at $200 -- but at this point no new trade has developed 
following Thursday's business. So far this week, Southern live cattle have 
traded at mostly $200 which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average 
and yet again another new all-time record high. And dressed cattle sales in the 
North have been mostly marked at $320, which is $5.00 higher than last week's 
weighted average and another new all-time market high.

   Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets 
in 2025. 2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds as steer and heifer 
slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed. Although I personally 
don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor 
here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are 
higher than last month's report as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now 
expected to average $194 (up $6.00), steers in the second quarter are expected 
to average $194 (up $5.00), steers in the third quarter are expected to average 
$196 (up $4.00) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at 
$198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with 
supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 
2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds.

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.34 ($333.12) and select up $5.22 
(313.57) with a movement of 68 loads (31.03 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of 
select, 6.13 loads of trim and 24.23 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as 
traders take note of the aggressive rally in corn prices. Traders quickly saw 
the lower-than-expected decline in the 2024-2025 ending corn stocks at 1.54 
billion bushels, which is down 198 million bushels from last month's report, 
and it's somewhat taken the market by surprise. But thankfully, the strong 
buyer demand in the countryside is still helping the nearby feeder cattle 
contracts keep their momentum, although some of the deferred are reacting 
poorly. January feeders are up $2.95 at $272.17, March feeders are up $0.35 at 
$268.65 and April feeders are up $0.40 at $269.47.

LEAN HOGS:

   The announcement that pork production in 2025 is forecasted to be stronger 
than December's estimates combined with the note of higher pork cutout values 
is all helping push the lean hog contracts higher into Friday's noon hour. 
February lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.12, April lean hogs are up $1.15 at 
$88.47 and June lean hogs are up $1.17 at $101.62. Day by day, the further the 
market moves away from the technical bottom established earlier this week, the 
more likely it's becoming that a near-term bottom has been established for the 
market and higher trends could now become the norm if pork demand remains 
supportive.

   The projected lean hog index for 1/9/2025 is down $0.16 at $80.43, and the 
actual index for 1/8/2025 is down $0.46 at $80.59. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.37 with a weighted average price of 
$77.98, ranging from $70.00 to $81.00 on 721 head with a five-day rolling 
average of $78.76. Pork cutouts total 180.32 loads with 159.70 loads of pork 
cuts and 20.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $92.02.

   Friday's WASDE Report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog 
markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds 
as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 
are expected to average $61 (up $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter are 
expected to average $66 (up $1.00), hog prices in the third quarter are 
expected to average $70 (up $2.00) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 
2025 are estimated to be $56.00. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 
million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million 
pounds).

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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